01.04.24 - 05.04.24
Results of the previous week
| XAGUSD+10.73 | VIX +9.23% | BRN+4.54% |
NG -4.29% | COCOA -3.05% | TF -2.39% |
Last week, US stock indices declined. For now, it looks more like a technical correction. Increased yields on 10-year Treasury bonds put some pressure on the stock market. At the same time, macroeconomic data were generally quite positive. These include relatively strong US GDP data and a higher manufacturing PMI.
Despite the PCE indicator showing high inflation, the US dollar weakened against most of its opponents. As the US Federal Reserve previously noted, the current inflation rate is little cause for concern for the regulator, who is not abandoning plans to cut rates this year. That is keeping the dollar from strengthening.
Brent crude oil prices jumped to $91.00 a barrel, hitting a five-month high. The energy resource is seeing higher prices as a result of conflict in the Middle East, where the confrontation between Israel and Iran is intensifying, which can lead to disruptions in oil supplies. In addition, OPEC+ countries have maintained the pace of their production cuts. Meanwhile, expectations around demand are positive amidst favourable economic reports from China, which is the largest importer of oil.
Key events of the current week
The US. Inflation rate | DATE 10.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Inflation in the US remains above the Fed's target level despite its best efforts. However, recent comments from the regulator's representatives suggest that they do not see the current level of inflation as a threat to the economy, and they still aren't ruling out the likelihood of several rate cuts before the end of 2024. However, global analysts are predicting that inflation in the US will rise again. Rising inflation is changing expectations about the timing of the start of the rate cut. This is good news for the dollar but unfavourable for assets denominated in it, such as gold. In the short term, XAU/USD may roll back to around 2232.00. | |||||
ECB rates decision | DATE 11.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The growth rate of the Eurozone economy is extremely low. At the same time, the latest data shows the inflation rate fell to 2.4%. The ECB has previously hinted at the possibility of starting a rate cut in 2024. Easing inflation gives the European regulator an opportunity to gradually ease its monetary policy. Global analysts don't expect such a step from the ECB at its April meeting. However, they expect hints on the timing for the start of rate cuts to come out at the press conference. The central bank's softening monetary policy stance is unfavourable for the euro.Against this backdrop, EUR/USD may roll back to around 1.0740. | |||||
The UK. GDP growth rate | DATE 12.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The British economy has been hit pretty hard by rising energy prices and changing supply chains. According to the latest data, its growth rate fell 0.2% year over year through Q4 2023. The service PMI fell to a three-month low. Meanwhile, the Bank of England's high interest rates aren't favourable for economic growth either. That's why global analysts are forecasting that the country's GDP will undergo a contraction, which is bad news for the British pound. In this scenario, GBP/USD may resume its decline towards 1.2550. | |||||
